Market Commentary

Updated on May 3, 2024 10:07:40 AM EDT

Today’s big news was April’s Employment report that was full of surprises, most of them easily labeled as favorable for mortgage rates. For starters, the U.S. unemployment rate rose from March’s 3.8% to 3.9% in April and the number of new jobs was 175,000 compared to the 240,000 that was expected. And the third headline number, average hourly earnings, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.9% year over year, both falling short of forecasts by 0.1%. There is little to find negative in this report, fueling this morning’s bond rally and noticeable improvement in rates.

Next week doesn’t have any major economic reports to watch. It is a fairly light week in terms of scheduled events that are expected to influence mortgage rates. Now that the FOMC meeting is behind us, the Fed member speaking circuit restarts with several set for next week. If there are no surprises in any of those, it may be the results of the Treasury auctions midweek (10 and 30-year securities) that cause the largest move in rates. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.